Saturday, March 6, 2010

Intermarket Whac-A-Mole

Every trader that looks at more than one market throughout the day will recognize that there is a certain symmetrical relationship between certain markets at certain times. The confounding thing about these intermarket relationships is that they are fleeting. Sometimes the Euro dances with the S&P 500, and sometimes Gold butts in. Standing in line to get their chance are Crude, US Bonds or the Yen. Statisticians dub this phenomenon correlation. And they've even gone to the trouble of representing it as a mathematical formula. Lucky for us that we don't need to derive it every time we wish to see if there is something there or if it's just our imagination.
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Monday, March 1, 2010

We Are All Grecians

Observing the ruckus in Greece about what they plan to do with a maxed out credit card, I cannot help but feel a vicarious empathy. The state unions and pensioners are protesting planned austerity measures, but wouldn't you if your government-sponsored welfare was being threatened? Think back to when you we just a young child and your parents threatened you with taking away television privileges or some such entitlement that was important to you. It's not fair to offer something and then take it away. It's demeaning, insulting and dis-empowering. The Greek Prime Minister, Mr. Papandreou, has been appointed that country's liaison with Reality. It's a job that comes with no small sense of peril and loathing. Imagine if you couldn't even get to work because your employees were protesting your office and you needed to find other suitable office space to plot your solutions.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

My Trading Mask

The marriage metaphor is getting a little stale for me when it comes to trading. You don't want to get married to your trade, but you are committed to your trading plan (in a married sort of way). When you deviate from your trade plan, your infidelity is a burden for you to bear alone when you go to bed at night. I'm leaving personal relationship analogies behind for now. Instead, I'm introducing a new style of trading: the Janus style. Janus is a euphemism for two-faced and suggests some unscrupulous character flaw, but remember that many famous people have lived double lives and still contributed to the culture in which they lived. Think Superman. Super hero when duty called, but otherwise a news reporter. Or how about Spiderman ( Peter the photographer) and Batman ( Bruce the philanthropist). I can't remember what Catwoman's day job was, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't running around town in a latex outfit.  Maybe Catwoman is not a good example, but you get the idea. Analogy applied to trading? I am continuing my pursuit of black box system trading by day, but I am assuming my own alter-ego and becoming a discretionary trader by night.
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Monday, February 1, 2010

An Experiment in Risk Arbitrage

I just started reading Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavior Finance by Andrei Shleifer where he pretty much dispatches the notion that markets are efficient, as envisioned by the great minds who postulated the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). One argument that EMH uses to promote this notion of efficient markets is that arbitrageurs will clean up irrational trading inefficiencies (known as noise trading) through a process of selling an 'over-valued' security while simultaneously buying the same (or nearly the same) 'under-valued' security. Well, I thought Apple's introduction of a new gizmo would be a good time to try my hand at arbitrage, so I quickly funded my paper money account with $100,000 and set up the trade three hours before Steve Jobs took the stage.
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Saturday, January 30, 2010

More than one tenor can sing Rigoletto - at the same time

This mandrigal-like performance of Guiseppe Verdi's La Donne Mobile is interesting because the operatic solo (aria) replaced mandrigals in the early 17th century. Three great tenors here include Jose Carreras, Placido Domingo and Luciano Pavoratti. If you look into the lyrics, it's basically about some guy being flummoxed, perplexed and confused about women.

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Thursday, January 28, 2010

More than one way to play the violin

It's not just the musical score that can be appreciated, but how someone plays the notes. The musical piece below is Niccolo Paganini's Moto Perpetuo. My favorite performances include those by Michael Rabin, Yehudi Menuhin, Itzhak Perlman and Jascha Heifetz. When you play really, really well, you get the title of 'Virtuoso'. Heifetz is my favorite virtuoso and too bad I couldn't find a video of him performing this piece. You can view him actually playing Paganini's Caprice No. 24. But for our musical selection you'll just have to look at his picture and listen.

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

More than one way to play a sheet of music

It's interesting that Bach's Cello Suite (Prelude to Suite #1 below) sounds so different depending on who's playing it. Most have probably heard the YoYo Ma rendition in some chick flick. Other cellists you may want to listen to include Mischa Maisky and Mstislav Rostropovich. I've chosen the Pau Casals version mostly because he brought this obscure piece of music back into the public. He found the sheet music in a shop in Barcelona in 1890 and practiced playing it for 12 years before performing it publicly. He was forced into exile in France because of voicing some opinions against Spain's Franco government. That same government promised to amputate his arms if he returned.

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