I've met two people in my life who've won the lottery. I'm talking like million-dollar lottery, not a bingo pool of nickels and dimes. Unlike the canonical story about how lottery winners lose all their money in six weeks because they spend it all at once on rare-truffle chocolates and gold-lined toilet paper, these two put it to good use. Their lives did not suffer from winning. I'm not sure where they are now, but I'm pretty sure that the winnings did not ruin them.
You too can win the lottery and live a good life. But I wouldn't bet on it. The odds are not good. It's about the same odds you get from shorting this market. They are unnatural odds. You're betting against a printing press, namely the Federal Reserve. They do not want a repeat of 2008, and I wouldn't expect that same scenario to play out again anytime soon. Central banks, and not just the Fed, have a keen sense of their duty. They are the "quote" -- house, and they do what they need to do to live up to their obligations.
Yes, you may win here and there, but only by chance and pure luck. Your logic of the world is not the same as the logic of the alternate universe. What makes sense to you does not make sense to the market.
I have my lottery ticket in the form of an SPX put calendar, MAY/JUN at the 1285 strike. I put this trade on for a debit of $10.45 and it was green for just one day. It's red now. A red lottery ticket. I'll be taking it off this week for a loss and probably buying another one for next cycle. You just never know when you're going to hit it.
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