There aren't many of us left. We've lost many to attrition and a few to defection. Our group grows smaller with each passing day of higher highs and higher lows. We are short this market and the object of scorn and ridicule. We are being kicked around like degenerates addicted to pain. Not only have we suffered damage to our trading portfolios, but we have to deal with intervention attempts from those know better than us. They know this is a bull market and that means you should not be short. You should be long.
Some of us are bears, other bulls and still others indifferent. Some of us see a "quote" -- healthy pullback. Others see us going to test 1160 and below. A few see us going to zero (not many, mind you). In any case, it's difficult to have a meaningful conversation with the trend-is-your-frienders.
We point out that "we're a bit stretched here as we sit about 6% above the 50-day moving average."
"Nope, doesn't matter. You're just an unhappy vagrant who is suppressing anger because you missed the move."
"But we are getting a little frothy up here and people who have no business trading are making money."
"Ah, so you're not only bitter, but you're jealous."
"The european crisis is far from resolved, can't you see the chicanery going on there?"
"Doesn't matter, already priced in."
"Nobody is buying puts!"
"Nobody? Obviously some people are. Now you're exaggerating"
And so on. In the end, everyone trades what they see. Not everyone sees the same thing.
Be careful fellow contrarians. If holders of near zero-interest rate bonds get coaxed back into this market it can get very bad for us. Once that happens, it will be lights out for any and all skeptics (at least those with short positions).
My name is Milk and I am short this market.
I am short with 1% of my capital, a small speculative position, i am betting on a greek default in the near term. The rest is just cash waiting on the sideline, zero rate. I don't understand this market. I thought BLS was an acronym for bullshit, then i realized i was reading @zerohedge twitter feed. Good luck. N.Roubini thinks 1H will be fine, 2H is dark clouds.
ReplyDeleteI'm short with a few 1325/1330 SPX call spreads and as of now, ES 1346. (just placed a stop at 1345, which means I've got a few hours left in the trade)
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