Alright, let's get serious for a moment. Check that, let's "quote" -- not get serious for a moment. Let's instead pretend. That things that are bad are contained by wise sage-like men and women. That there is always an accounting technique that explains why things don't add up. That bull markets never behave badly.
Those of us who prefer listening to Beethoven's Last Quartets are being assaulted by Cindy Lauper melodies of the banal. While prancing optimists make money every other breath, plodding realists are forced to cover or hedge or both. It's maddening when dumb people make money at the expense of smart people.
But all the smart ones losing money lately have learned one thing that will be lost on the Pollyanna. How to survive when the market goes against you. You see, realists are quite accustomed to a slow unwinding. Trivial optimists have no idea what it feels like to have things not play out according to their charts, and to the levels that have been foretold by a 10th century mathematician.
For now, bulls are right. Bears are wrong. Those who claim to be neither are either scalpers (which there's nothing wrong with that) or delusional. It's almost too much to withstand the preening of long-term agnostics.
I hear you and the optimism can be frustrating. I would like to push a back a little with respect.
ReplyDeleteFirst while Ben B is not a sage he is the doing his job the best he can. Ben and company will keep the ship afloat if they can. He is smart and he is working hard. What else can he do but try to make this work. If he doesn’t make it work things like revolutions happen. I’m not just saying to be melodramatic but look at the recent Arab spring. It didn’t happen just because of people ideals it happens because they need to eat.
That said the herd is going to always move forward until the challenge before them makes them run if different directions. The question is not why the market going up but do people want to grow and move on? I think that question is a big yes! The truth is that we all need to live and work hard to make things happen so we can feed our families and take care of our loved ones. So each person at every S&P 500 company is going to come to work and work hard. What choice do most people have? I was at a dinner where people ask what will get us back on our feet (“us” being the US and the economy) I said our desire to live and prosper. My friend sitting next to me just had brought home his child from the hospital his child was born very premature and he was now is doing great. Smart people had made that possible. If you want a reason to push forward that is it. Each day my friend woke up 2 hours early to go the hospital to spend time with his new boy. Then he came right from work and did it again and the next day he did it again. He did it for 3 months each and every day. My point is that that people need to make it work because we have big reasons to move forward.
The state of the world has many concerns, however it is hard to discount the desire to grow and not sit still.
Good point, and I will agree with your sentiments. The main thesis behind most bear arguments is not that the good will and hard work of many people is stupid, but rather that the credit expansion as solution is doomed to fail eventually. You can't just keep printing money!
ReplyDeleteA little short, but that's very well-said. While having a dash of optimism certainly isn't a bad thing, being realistic and directly facing a situation is the way to go with all the economic problems around the world these days.
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